In 1990, Marilyn vos Savant correctly answered a probability puzzle in her column for Parade Magazine. And then, the world called her an idiot.
I still remember the chaos caused by the Monty Hall problem in our high school math class. Here's my explanation for how it works:
- Your first choice could either be a car or a goat.
- If you picked the car, you will win the car by not changing your guess.
- If you picked a goat, the host will reveal the second goat. The last door left will be the car, so you are guaranteed to win if you change your guess.
- Try to pick the car on your first guess, and don't change the guess.
- Try to pick a goat on your first guess, and change the guess after the host opens another door.
The best strategy is to try to pick a goat in round 1. Once the host has revealed the second goat, you are guaranteed the car by switching doors.